Technical Name Intelligent Rough Order of Magnitude Estimates for Aerospace Industry
Project Operator National Tsing Hua University
Project Host 簡禎富
Summary
"The calculation process of this technology includes the following steps:
 
 (1) Obtainintegrate metal market price information, past historical purchase records,material comparison table data
 
 (2) Grouping the data according to materials
 
 (3) Combine each sub-data set with market price information
 
 (4) Judging whether there are more than 30 pieces of data in the group. If not, do nothing
 
 (5) Data cleaning. Delete the information that is useless in the ROM quotation process
 
 (6) Model construction. According to each sub-data set, fit models,perform training models.
 
 (7) Measure the results of each model (mainly based on MAPE, R2, RMSE,MAE as indicators to assist in judging the quality of the model during
Scientific Breakthrough
The historical data collection period of material cost in the aerospace industry is more than one year. The increase in data spanning too many years may not be representative. In addition, international raw materials fluctuate considerably. The group center is used as the forecast value if we use grouping. It is difficult to improve the prediction accuracy, so the scientific breakthrough of this technology is to develop an integrated model for material grouping, classification,the ability to estimate cost according to size, to reduce the possible deviation of the model.
Industrial Applicability
ROM (Rough Order of Magnitude) rough quotation is a work defined by the Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide). The company relied on the experience of senior business executives to make critical decisions, which resulted in inconsistent decision-making qualityrepeated discussions resulting in long decision-making time. This technology uses an artificial intelligence algorithm to adapt the model, which is suitable for the metal processing processcan estimate laser/mechanical drilling time in the printed circuit board industry. It has a wide range of industrial applicability.
Keyword Project Management Rough Order of Magnitude(ROM) Ensemble Learning Material Cost Grouping Classification RandomForest XGBoost
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